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Shel Holtz
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A salvage plan for Detroit’s Big Three

Shel HoltzThe Big 3 U.S. automakers—GM, Ford, and Chrysler—want the $25 billion federal legislators are hesitantly dangling in front of them. Today, Democratic leaders insisted that the trio spell out their plans for spending the $25 billion (which presumably won’t include additional private jets).

My advice to these companies: Go considerably further than a spending plan.

On his “60 Minutes” interview this past Sunday, President-Elect Barack Obama said he supported a bailout but wouldn’t sign a blank check. He’d want to see a plan for revitalizing the industry.

I do—reluctantly—support a bailout. The impact of 3 million or so people joining the ranks of the unemployed (and this would come from GM’s failure alone) would be devastating at a time when the economy can ill-afford such a hit. But that would be preferable to handing over $25 billion that would be spent on the same old same old, leading us right back to this point in another year or two.

A genuine turnaround in the industry, though, would result in repayment of the loans with interest, as Chrysler did when it was bailed out back in 1979.

The U.S. auto industry is riddled with problems. As much improved as American cars are from their sorry state 30 years ago, Japan and Korea (among others) have kept pace and continue to churn out generally better products. The power of the United Auto Workers has led to pension and retiree medical obligations that would be unthinkable in just about any other industry, creating a crushing financial burden. Huge bureaucracy and massive infrastructure make major changes slow and tedious, like the shift to more fuel-efficient engines. And these problems just scratch the surface

All of which makes the public skeptical that the industry will produce any ROI from its $25 billion investment.

So here’s what GM, Ford, and Chrysler need to do:

Get together and create a vision for the reborn U.S. auto industry, a road map for how they’ll get there, and a plan showing how the bailout will serve as the catalyst for achieving the vision.

This plan should be presented in simple social website. Extravagant design and bells and whistles aren’t necessary, just a clear articulation of the vision and the plan. In addition to initial feedback through comments and other crowdsourcing channels, the Big Three should plan a 72 hour public jam, just like those put on by IBM, to tap into the collective wisdom and surface more ideas that will lead to a revised vision and plan that now belongs to the American people as much as it does to the automakers. It’s very difficult to oppose a plan you helped create.

Legislators, meanwhile, would watch this transparent exercise unfold in public, with public involvement. That is, the voting public will have had a hand in developing the plan. It’s not easy to reject your voters’ efforts.

The final step is to institutionalize the means by which progress would be subject to public oversight, including an industry website chronicling each step and providing the means for continued engagement between industry and public.

The Big Three have a real opportunity to do something amazing. Dramatic change is not just a good idea; it’s a requirement. Ford and GM already understand the value of engaging their customers. Now it’s time to bring these factors to bear on a major reinvention of the industry.

With GM proclaiming it could run out of cash by the end of the year, time is short. With survival hanging in the balance, I bet they could do it.

11/20/08 | 17 Comments | A salvage plan for Detroit’s Big Three

Comments
  • 1.I respectfully disagree with your position for two reasons:
    1. This has happened before ... Detroit running to Washington for money.
    2. The current CEOs, while collecting big paychecks, lack vision. They are not capable of leading their companies forward.

    David

    David | November 2008 | DC

  • 2.I understand and sympathize with your points, David, which I was I added "reluctantly" to my support.

    Sounds like you think those 3 million workers hitting the pavement is a better idea?

    Shel Holtz | November 2008

  • 3.Actually, going into bankruptcy might be a sobering and heathy experience for the Big 3 automakers. It's just PR scare tactic that workers would hit the pavement. Quite the contrary, they would continue working during reorganization protection. The business model of the American auto industry must be forced to change, to become updated and more competitive, and that is not going to happen through a bailout and an escape route for incompetent leadership.

    David | November 2008

  • 4.Not according to a few economists I heard, David; one of them, I think it was Nobel Laureate Paul Krugman, notes that the lack of cash would keep the company from paying out retiree benefits, buying parts and supplies, and making other purchases; he said it's a fundamentally different situation than other types of companies operating under bankruptcy protection. He also noted nobody would want to buy a car from a bankrupt company, causing further income declines and making the likelihood of emergence from bankruptcy even more remote. I think it's a mistake to dismiss this as a mere PR ploy.

    Here's one of the interviews I saw: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u9Wc5IKsF1E

    Shel Holtz | November 2008

  • 5.With all respect for Mr. Krugman, it would be one thing if the CEOs had a specific plan, were willing to take pay cuts themselves and eliminate the excesses, like private jets. But they are not willing. Either they are replaced or let Detroit go into bankruptcy which will permit smarter people to step in and clean it up.

    David | November 2008

  • 6.Now we're on the same page! The plan is the point of my post.

    Shel Holtz | November 2008

  • 7.I like and respect you Shel but the advice in this post is ludicrous. Social websites and crowdsourcing won't do anything to solve the problems at the big three automakers. Henry Ford once said, "If I'd asked people what they wanted, they would have asked for a better horse."

    More money won't solve anything either. Time and again these companies have squandered the opportunities afforded them by the U.S. Government, which means that the people afforded them those opportunities. These three companies will burn through $25 billion in six month time. It's time for these companies to seek the protection of bankruptcy so they can nullify their ridiculous union contracts and sell off the pieces of their companies that anyone else will buy.

    The best idea that I haven't heard anyone talk about is a very simple one. After they all declare bankruptcy, merge the three companies into a single automaker, eliminating the many redundant lines of vehicles in the process.

    Robert Safuto | November 2008 | Albany, NY

  • 8.One thing that you are missing in your scenario is the role the unions will have to play/concede in crafting a reborn auto industry. And with the head of the UAW this week flatly rejecting that they would make any concessions it will probably devolve into 2 - 3 warring camps simply trying to out shout each other over the negotiation table.

    I'm sorry, but having watched unions drive out several major companies in Dayton over my lifetime due to an unwillingness to negotiate, I hold little to no hope that they won't/can't make the necessary changes to succeed without being forced to via bankruptcy.

    Craig Jolley | November 2008

  • 9.Craig, unions are the wild card, but if union members become part of the planning process...

    Rob, I have to believe there's a solution between just handing them money and letting them go bankrupt, which simply isn't a viable option given the state of the economy (watch the Krugman video). The three top guys may not be visionaries, but there are a lot of smart people in these organizations (I can point to Christopher Barger and GM and Scott Monty at Ford as examples), and I just don't buy the idea that the power of many minds can't come up with a solution. And remember the underlying premise of the post: Obama wants to see a plan for reinvention of the the industry -- I'm merely suggesting a process for developing and promoting such a plan.

    Shel Holtz | November 2008 | Concord, CA

  • 10.Shel,
    With respect, I believe your plan would not fit the scale of the multi-dimensional problems. Detroit, I believe, needs to be allowed to push itself to the brink of extinction before it will finally sober up from all the greed, and then begin to find a new business model. Without drastic action, the CEO greed, the UAW greed and the demands of the works will continue.

    dh

    David | November 2008

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