Death Watch Case File #1: Tangible Media
In a post on November 17, I created the Death Watch list, a rundown of various media whose death has been widely predicted. This is the first in a series of posts that takes a deeper dive into these.
A utopian vision has emerged in which every expression of human endeavor once conveyed via physical media is transformed into digital media. Micro Persuasion blogger Steve Rubel, a vice president at Edelman, has bet that “by January 2014…in the US almost all forms of tangible media will either be in sharp decline or completely extinct.” Steve lists print—books, magazines and newspapers—but also DVDs, boxed software, and video games.
The examples Steve lists to support his argument are mostly good ones. But they are not signs of a tangible media apocalypse. Rather, they are examples of what happens when new technologies produce more advantages than the existing technologies. In almost every instance, the old media adapt, abdicating much of what they used to do to the new kid on the block, but carving out a niche based on their remaining strengths.
I’m dismissing the DVD/CD/software category from the mix, as these are solely about distribution methods. When you buy software in the box, it’s so you can install it on your computer. The fact that you downloaded it instead of buying the box doesn’t mean you wind up with a different approach to the application on your hard drive, it’s exactly the same. That’s not the same as an ebook, which on a Kindle doesn’t look or function anything like a paper book with its 80-pound book stock.
Books
Let’s start with books. Steve notes that Oprah Winfrey’s endorsement of the Amazon Kindle as the next big thing sparked a surge in demand for the electronic book hardware. (Of course, if Oprah waxed enthusiastic about a new brand of paper towels, they’d fly off the shelves.) I have a Kindle, and I do like it a lot, some usability issues aside. But I use it primarily when I’m traveling so I don’t need to figure out how to carry a 900-page book without exceeding the airlines’ carry-on limit. At home, I still prefer to hold a real book in my hand. It’s easier on the eyes, it never loses its charge, and I never accidentally turn a page.
But there’s more to printed books. I can make notes in the margin. I can put it on a shelf and refer to it (and my margin notes) later. If the book has graphics, they are sharp and clear. Artwork—such as Gilbert Stuart’s oil painting of John Adams appearing in a biography of America’s second president—are reproduced with brilliant four-color process printing that simply cannot be duplicated with the limited palette of colors built into web browser technology.
In fact, coffee table books featuring photography and artwork still display the images with far better fidelity than you can get on the Web.
So at least these forms of books will survive because they are better at what they do than their digital counterparts. But print is also finding new life as a channel for creative expression through print-on-demand (POD) services like Blurb and Lulu. Blurb continues to grow despite current economic conditions that are hastening the demise of some other print-based enterprises. According to a friend who works there, POD’s popularity is largely attributable to the ease with which people can channel their creativity into print without incurring the costs that once kept it off limits.
“Look through the Blurb bookstore for 10 minutes,” he told me. “You’ll see what I mean.” In addition to the expected collections of photos from weddings and Bar Mitzvahs and the like, there’s a book of photos of people in their underwear in their bedrooms titled “The Underwear Experiment,” Piers Fawke‘s book of nine good ideas and various implementations of them, and a book of paintings by an artist who says, “My books are currently a way of publishing to my friends the stuff they have never seen and paintings they can’t afford.”
While some print companies suffer, my friend told me tens of thousands of books were published by Blurb last week alone, and the number continues to grow. This is a classic case of an old medium adapting by transforming into something people want that cannot be duplicated using the newer technology.
Magazines
In his post, Steve doesn’t offer any particular evidence to support the demise of magazines. I suspect he figures they’re just caught up in the general collapse of tangible media; he also notes that he hasn’t bought one in a couple years. (I share Steve’s passion for digital content, but still like to pick up a magazine at airport newsstand to read on the flight—I’m allowed to have it open during takeoff and landing, which isn’t true of my digital devices.) Magazine publishing has always been a dicey business, but the circulations of popular magazines continue to grow. Despite the move to all things digital, titles like Vanity Fair, Esquire, In Style, and Ladies’ Home Journal continue to gain subscriptions. The secret here is knowing your audience, producing compelling content, and creating a total package between the front and back covers that offers a self-contained experience you just can’t get on the Web.
Other tangible media
Steve doesn’t list a lot of other tangible media on his post, but he is explicit in his view that all tangible media will be gone or on their way out by 2014. I wonder if this would include…
- Artwork for your walls—Digital picture frames are nice, but I’d rather have a Peter Max on my wall than a digital image of one
- Billboards—Some are going digital, but these are wildly expensive and outdoor advertising is still mainly a print business
- Direct mail—Maybe we wish it would go away, but I don’t see any signs that it is. In fact, people I know in the DM industry suggest it thrives because it works. And, to be honest, I would never remember to order my company holiday cards if the packages from four or five different suppliers didn’t show up in my mail every August or so.
- Table tent cards and other collateral—Based on what I’m looking at in my hotel room, and what I see in other hotel rooms, restaurants, and other venues—this is another form of tangible media that doesn’t seem to be suffering.
- Brochures—Here in Las Vegas, where I’m visiting for the Thanksgiving holiday, they’re stuffed into pockets of cabs and available in hotels by the thousands. After riding one of the thrill rides atop the Stratosphere Hotel, I grabbed a brochure that detailed the tower’s height and other characteristics. Do you see these going away any time soon?
This is a short list; I’m sure you could add to it.
But the point should be clear. The notion that tangible media will be gone by 2014—or even 2054—is ridiculous.
(I don’t mean to take aim at Steve Rubel, by the way—he’s hardly alone in this digital fanboy perspective that can’t imagine how anything that isn’t digital could possibly have a place in the world. Besides, if Steve were the only one promoting this nonsense, I wouldn’t include it on my DeathWatch list, which is made up of items popularly believed to be on their way out. Steve’s post is just the most recent item I could find that articulates this point of view.)
As I noted early in this post, old media adapt, embracing the uses at which they are better than the new media and leaving everything else to the newer technologies.
11/26/08 | 10 Comments | Death Watch Case File #1: Tangible Media