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Shel Holtz
Communicating at the Intersection of Business and Technology
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Research group predicts 60 million podcast listeners

Billionare blogger/Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban warns podcasters that they’re likely to find themselves on the same trash heap of history that contains early streaming audio efforts like those created for pseudo.com, broadcast.com, eyada.com, and others that have faded from memory. “Creating your own podcast and trying to make a business out of it is a mistake.”

Cuban’s comments echo those of several others who are dismissing podcasting as a fad. Of course, their opinions fly in the face of research conducted by companies like The Diffusion Group, a digital media entertaining research firm that predicts the US podcast audience will grow from its current 840,000 listeners to 60 million by 2010. While Diffusion attributes much of the growth to the entrance of mainstream media into podcasting, I’ve always believed in the hackneyed cliche that suggests a rising tide raises all boats. The availability of PBS, ABC, CBS and other programming as podcasts won’t edge out those of the so-called “indie” or “pirate” podcasters (like Neville and me); it will only increase awareness of the fact that such programs exist.

While we “amateur” podcasters may never attract the audience of a mainstream personality, neither are we looking for those kinds of numbers. Podcasting provides the big boys with the ability to give audiences content they can listen to at their convenience, but it also provides very narrowcasted audiences—like public relations practitioners seeking commentary about online communication—with content they’re simply never going to get from the big media players. Besides, podcasting isn’t radio, and there are a lot of people out there seeking an alternative to the corporate-programmed crap that spews forth from the airwaves. Getting that same garbage on their digital media players won’t be all that appealing to these folks. In other words, there’s plenty of room in the podosphere (oh, God, is that going to become a word?) for both types of podcasts.

Cuban suggests podcasters can’t make a living from their work, but I suspect the host of Endurance Radio would shrug off such a proclamation. With a paltry audience of hard-core, dedicated endurance sports enthusiasts, Endurance Radio has attracted the likes of Gatorade and Fleet Sports to pay $4,000 a month to sponsor the show. The audience may not be large, but it’s hard for an advertiser to find so concentrated a group of its target market.

Ultimately, of course, time will tell. But I’m putting my money on a big future for podcasting.

Comments
  • 1.I read and then re-read the Mark Cban blog last week and I agree with you about the podcast growth and adoption.
    Didn't we read about the same coments when TV was introduced in the early part of the last century and how it was not going to change anything and that print will continue to be the media of choice?
    What is it with print, other than it's one dimensional representation? I prefer the richness of many dimensions and that is the key to podcasting and vlogging.
    gjw

    Graham J Wallace | July 2005 | Canada

  • 2.PR blogger and podcasting pioneer Shel Holtz today linked to a study by the Diffusion Group that predicts the U.S. audience for podcasts will reach 60 million by the year 2010.

    Wow. Will I be the only person in America not plugged in?

    Here's a quote from Shel's post:

  • 3.Great post, Shel. However, I wonder about the word "amateur". I would posit that your podcast is professional rather than amateur, although it's not commercial per se. The beauty of a podcast like FIR, and several others, is that it meets the need of a niche audience that could never be served by the likes of ABC or NBC. To me, that's the beauty of podcasting.

    Donna Papacosta | July 2005 | Oakville,Ontario, Canada

  • 4.Thanks for the kind words, Donna. I guess I reserve the word "professional" for people who get paid for what they do. So far, Neville and I do this without compensation. One day, we may solicit sponsorships. Then I'll call us "professional."

    Shel Holtz | July 2005 | Concord, CA

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