Savaging Scoble
I’m feeling pretty bad for Robert Scoble.
Last weekend, Robert released a series of video brain dumps that explained why he thinks “Mahalo, Techmeme and Facebook are going to kick Google‘s butt in four years.” Since then, he’s been the subject of some scathing critiques that not only point out the technological flaws in his argument but do so in an unnecessarily personal way.
- Danny Sullivan at SearchEngineLand used 4,000 words to argue that Robert’s wrong: “Want to be like Robert…and keep equating SEO with spam? Then fuck off.”
- At SEOMoz, Randy Fishkin headlined his piece, “I used to respect Robert Scoble’s opinion…”
- Wired’s Adario Strange wrote, “While we always suspected Scoble’s too-quick adoption and evangelism of [Fill In The Blank] Web 2.0 technology spoke to an irrational exuberance unsupported by logic and insight, this video serves as final confirmation.”
- Stowe Boyd says Scoble is imploding, suggesting “Robert, it’s maybe time to go back to evangelizing blogging for some large slow-moving enterprise, I think.”
There’s more. Even Robert himself has listed the criticisms and his mistakes.
Robert’s key mistake was asserting that human-created directories were synonymous with search. Critics are also complaining about his lack of understanding of a “social graph.” Mostly, though, they’re chiding him for daring to talk tech that is over his head and impugning his credibility because he did. Strange invoked the old quote, “Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt.” Sullivan chortles at Robert’s assertion that current search technology doesn’t search video, claiming that the narrative about the video is all you really need to find it: “Want to see the Lazy Sunday video? Oh, look—I found it number one on Google without Google needing to analyze the words inside the video.”
So Robert had the chutzpah to express an opinion and back it up with confused facts and misunderstanding of the technology. Okay, it’s not unfair to point out the mistakes (although the personal attacks accompanying these observations strike me as way, way out of line). If the critics can get past their holier-than-thou “I caught you erring” crusade, they might see a kernel of substance in Robert’s videos: With the web expanding both in volume and content types, Google’s search engine just isn’t adequate any more.
Everyone pretty much agrees—and research supports—that most people don’t go past the first page of Google results. And as search engine optimizers push their content to the top, my keyword search often doesn’t reveal what I’m looking for on that first page. It’s not unusual for a search to produce thousands, hundreds of thousands, or even millions of results. (A search on “Robert Scoble” and “search” generated 1.2 million pages, and only the last one of those on the first page related to this issue—and it was a criticism.)
I’ve suggested for some time that the increased use of consumer tagging and microformats could lead to improved search results. I tend to get better information searching del.icio.us and Technorati than I do at Google. Not as comprehensive, to be sure, but better and more targeted to what I’m looking for. And as for Google’s preeminence in the search space, does anybody remember AltaVista and HotBot? These were the undisputed leaders until upstart Google came along. Who’s to say somebody is working on something somewhere that will topple Google? (And if they are, I’ll bet they’re incorporating tags and social networks into their algorithms.)
So Robert, in his enthusiasm, made some factual mistakes. Fine. Who doesn’t, from time to time? More importantly, he kick-started a discussion that needs to be had about the future of search. While admitting his errors, Robert stands by this, nothing (among other things):
1. Google is getting noisier and isn???t improving as fast as we???d like it. So, anyone who has an idea of how search is going to improve will get listened to. I think this is why Powerset and Spock got so much hype.
2. A lot of people have discovered social networks and services in the past six months. Twitter, Pownce, Facebook, Plaxo, not to mention Upcoming, Yelp, Flickr, Del.icio.us, Digg, etc. And we???re just starting to learn about how those are potentially going to change our life and the services we expect. So, anyone who can see a new pattern in how these will be used will get paid attention to.
I’m on your side, Robert. I never read or watched you for your technical acumen, anyway (which is still a damned sight better than mine). The value you bring to the web is in your recognition of trends and your enthusiasm for what works. Don’t let the eye-rolling of the sanctimony set get you down. I, at least, will keep paying attention.
08/29/07 | 6 Comments | Savaging Scoble