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Shel Holtz
Communicating at the Intersection of Business and Technology
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Tech leaders see a gold mine in Second Life

Fortune magazine senior editor David Kirkpatrick is just out with an article on the future of Second Life, noting:

...what’s beginning to catch the attention of IBM and other huge corporations is something potentially far more profound than a new online pastime. It’s the ability to use Second Life as a platform for a whole new Net—this one in 3-D and even more social than the original—with huge opportunities to sell products and services.

Exactly, although I’m not 100% convinced that whole new Net will be based on the Second Life engine. But to me, it’s a whole lot more intuitive to navigate down a street, into a building, and into a room to buy a product than it is to click through left-hand navigation panels. Plenty of writers of speculative fiction (e.g., William Gibson, Neal Stephenson) have predicted this development.

You don’t have to get excited about the culture of Second Life as it now exists in order to understand that the underlying idea could well be the kernel of the Internet’s next significant evolution. The reason to embrace Second Life now is to understand the principles so your organization can be ready when the transition begins. (Remember all those companies that shrugged off the Web for years saying, “Who needs a website?”)

I think that transition is inevitable, although I certainly could be wrong, but here’s the issue: If I’m right and your organization hasn’t figured it out, you’ll be playing catch-up while your competitors are out in front. If I’m wrong, you really haven’t lost anything.

Anyway, read the article. No registration required.

 

Comments
  • 1.Shel,

    Its interesting that you feel that 3D enviorments maybe more intuitive, I've always felt the opposite - its long, tedious and clunky versus direct links and search navigation. To each his own, I guess.

    What is your opinion regarding the use of 3D Shopping malls? B3 has created a virtual mall on Second Life, which includes the likes of Amazon.com, eBay, Old Navy, and Barnes & Nobles. The Mall Plus follows a similar model, 3D Virtual Malls, but outside of second life.

    - Daniel

    Daniel R | January 2007 | San Francisco

  • 2.Hi, Daniel.

    I think 3D enviornments provide the best of both worlds. We already understand the geography of the 3D world, but since the laws of physics don't apply, you can teleport directly to the coordinates of a location, you can fly...you get the idea.

    The mall idea is fine, as long as the stores are not just 3D representation of real-world stores, but merge what works best on the web into the 3D world. The idea, in other words, is use what works best from both notions -- strategic integration.

    Shel Holtz | January 2007 | Concord, CA

  • 3.I actually think websites will start to incorporate 3D elements (not entire sites going 3D at first), and I don't think they will be built on the SL engine, with the need to download a specialized client. Microsoft is already toying with this in IE and other sites are already using current browser technology. SL is a great place to experiment with this technology, but I am still not a believer that it is the place to be for all corporations/companies. In my opinion, it is hard to make money there.

    Kami Huyse | January 2007

  • 4.Hi, Kami.

    The reason I don't think it'll go that way is that you won't be able to employ a single avatar across every website's separate scheme. Some may employ the concept, but I don't think users will embrace it. They'll embrace an immersive environment that provides one-stop shopping for information, content, entertainment, and commerce. SL offers that, but again, I'm not convinced SL will come out as the top dog. As Urizenas Sklar has pointed out, the game engine is antiquated and can't handle a lot of what users are going to require.

    Shel Holtz | January 2007 | Concord, CA

  • 5.I'm fairly convinced that Second Life will be known in 2-3 years as the PointCast of Web 2.0. Something with astonishing PR and marketer uptake, and very little actual usage by normal people. My litmus test is my nephew, who literally played with it for 10 minutes before getting annoyed by the awful interface and lag. My experience with a lot of other people is the same.

    SL is only useful in the sense that pioneers can play and explore. I do think virtual environments will eventually take off. But three things will need to be in place first: 1) reliable higher speed networks that are more akin to what Asia has, not the U.S. 2) better graphics processors on standard corporate computers 3) a truly open VR environment (not just clients) that allows creativity and tools to flourish, much like HTML and every other standard that defines online interaction. As RSS inherited (and expanded) the fundamental idea behind the now defunct PointCast, you'll see a VR standard inherit whatever is left of Linden in a few years. And I don't see many PointCast programmers in demand these days...

    As far as using SL to understand virtual environments?.. I'd be more apt to recommend a trial subscription to World of Warcraft. While Linden may have PR chops, WoW has quietly acquired 7 million active subscribers paying monthly for the privilege. Yes, it's a game and SL isn't. And, yes, it's not as open-ended. But Blizzard has completely defined ease of use and lag-free environments for millions of people who are very much involved in a social environment. I think you'd learn more there (and have more fun).

    Jerry Stevenson | January 2007 | Dallas, Texas USA

  • 6.I was kinda with you right up to the WOW reference, Jerry. SL isn't a game. Everything in it was built by residents. That's what businesses need to understand and get accustomed to, and they won't find it in WOW.

    Shel Holtz | January 2007 | Concord, CA

  • 7.I think you're missing my last point a bit, Shel. I noted that SL isn't a game, and WoW is. And while it doesn't include the ability to create custom objects (yet), it does demonstrate to novices (particularly in our field) what virtual environments are like, and how rich social interaction can be in a truly massively multi-user environment that is simple and intuitive to use.

    In my experience, if you hand the average communications professional SL, they'll never make it off newbie island, much less go about creating original items. And they'll leave frustrated. It's just too painful. Not so with WoW. I'd be the get sucked in for a long time, and not just because of the game aspect - the social element is the glue that has allowed them to keep such a mind boggling subscriber base active.

    As far as getting accustomed to building things in online worlds, I'd recommending holding off for large brands, exactly because the user experience is so dodgy. Why invest large amounts of time and effort in a proprietary virtual world that annoys the average person? I'd rather wait for standards to emerge and technology to evolve so that effort goes toward a platform with a future... Making, to me, the real question whether one has faith in Linden or not. Again, I see a lot of lost investment in Pointcast. Did the people who did use it learn something before the rest of us jumped on RSS? Perhaps.. But I doubt the knowledge was worth the lost time and investment. And I can pretty much guarantee you won't be able to export anything you've built in SL to whatever that next thing happens to be.

    Jerry Stevenson | January 2007 | Dallas, Texas USA

  • 8.It's not the ability to build things I'm talking about; it's seeing what happens in a world where people create their own environment -- just like the Web, only 3D. WOW, to me, seems too ordered to make the impression on businesses that THIS is what the next generation of the Internet will be like. SL is more like the Web, WOW is more like the old AOL.

    Shel Holtz | January 2007 | Concord, CA

  • 9.Shel; i see what you are saying about the avatars, but I think there are solutions to that. For one, a simpler scheme that doesn't include "custom" avatars. There is a place for online worlds like SL, and you know that I believe that, but I think the mainstream version will just be elements instead of immersive, at least for now.

    Kami Huyse | January 2007

  • 10.I think a more apt comparison might be AOL circa 1990 and BBS systems at the time. If I had a time machine, I think AOL of that generation taught more about the modern web than the arcane, but wide open world of BBBS'ing. Which is also why AOL's numbers exploded (before imploding) and BBS's died. Never underestimate simplicity and ease of use. If I've learned anything as an engineer, it's that the most powerful and open technology in the world will gather dust until it becomes intuitive for the average person. That's SL's biggest problem. You have to be an uber geek to appreciate it, put up with it's flaws, and get used to it's interface. Average consumers have no patience for that. They'll gladly give up features and even wide open creativity for simple things that allow some pre-structured customization, but provide a rich, simple to use experience. In the future, we may get the best of both worlds -- simple on the surface, but more powerful advanced features for users that want to create and customize. But we're far from that so far. And WoW, while far more limited, offers enough customization and creativity, I think it provides a closer glimpse of what's next. But I can appreciate your point of view, even if I disagree. :-)

    Jerry Stevenson | January 2007 | Dallas, Texas USA

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