△ MENU/TOP △

Holtz Communications + Technology

Shel Holtz
Communicating at the Intersection of Business and Technology
SearchClose Icon

Gates’ prediction on iPods works for me

There’s a lot of discussion over Bill Gates’ prediction that cell phones will eventually displace the iPod as the media player of choice. Over at Strategic Public Relations, there’s skepticism: “...are we asking too much from a device where small size is clearly an advantage? I mean, several mobile phone models are starting to look more like a choking hazard than a wireless communication device.”

Gates would clearly love to see Apple’s share of the digital media player plummet as his Microsoft wireless phone platform swoops in to gobble up MP3 listeners. In his speech in Frankfurt, he even noted that Apple once held a dominant share of the home computer marketplace, but lost it as soon as someone with a more customer-centric approach entered the marketplace.

I don’t really care which company wins or loses, as long as I win.

The iPod (and its less-successful brethren) were all designed to accommodate commercial music. Now, some are adding photos and even video to the mix. What I want—and I believe more and more will want as the medium’s popularity grows—is one that accommodates podcasts. Neville has articulated a list of features he wants to see in a digital media player in order to make podcast-listening easier.

I’m already getting some of this in my Treo 650. I’ve purchased and installed a Palm app called Quick News, which retrieves RSS feeds, including enclosures. As a result, I’m able to grab podcasts with the phone and listen through the Palm version of the Real Player. The podcasts themselves are stored on the phone’s flash memory card. This eliminates the need to go through my PC followed by transfer to my iPod. I can grab the podcasts I listen to wherever I happen to be.

What’s missing is a higher-speed connection (coming soon and already available with other wireless phone services), automatic retrieval without having to launch the Quick News app and ask it to get the latest feeds, bookmarking of podcasts, and a variety of other features. And if phones are to displace iPods, they’ll also need to find a way to add many gigabytes of storage without turning phones into devices the size of bricks (like the used to be). I have no doubt Nokia, Motorola, and others are working on that as we speak.

So could wireless phones replace iPods? If they’re easier to use and add uses not available on the current crop of players, there’s no doubt in my mind. Bring ‘em on.

Comments
  • 1.Bill forgot the battery

    Adam | May 2005

  • 2.Not only did Bill forget about the battery issue (yeah, people really want to use up the battery to listen to music, because it's that much more important than making phone calls....RIIIGHT), he also conveniently overlooks the fact that Apple and Motorola are ALREADY working on an "iTunes phone."

    If cell phones really do replace the iPod (not likely), guess what Bill? Apple already has it covered!

    Paul | May 2005

  • 3.Cell phones must be turned off while flying on commercial airlines. Does this mean I have to listen to the airline's crappy music while flying.

    I do not want a Swiss Army knife for my phone, camera, and music. Unless, of course it came with scizzors, and those dinky little tweezers.

    Tom | May 2005

  • 4.I have cellphone with Microsoft Mobile 2003 and it is horrible! Windows on mobiles just doesn't work. I don't want multitasking, because I can't see more than one application and it's difficult to switch between them.

    Mobile Windows is slow. It's so slow, that it often loses my keystrokes because I type faster than it redraws the screen (on SPV C500 200mhz).

    It already has Windows Media Player and I've bought memory extension to upload WMA files to it, but it didn't work. Probably it can't handle latest version of the format that desktop WMP uses.

    To sum it up: I can't wait to replace Windows Mobile with some kind of "iPhone".

    kL | May 2005

  • 5.You ask: "So could wireless phones replace iPods? If they?re easier to use and add uses not available on the current crop of players, there?s no doubt in my mind."

    That only scratches the surface of 'ifs.' Let's add, if battery life improves. As attractive as a smartphone is, I'm carrying a cheap Nokia because it lets me go a full week between charges with heavy use and over two weeks with light usage. This is important to me. I've yet to find a *decent* smartphone that can go even two days without recharging.

    Let's add, if it's form factor makes it acceptable to carry and use. Only the Treo is an acceptable size and shape for both phone and PDA use. Note that I used the word acceptable. I'm not excited by either the 600 or the 650 and their battery life is unacceptable. I'll not lug around something the size of Sony's game machine and I'll not try to use a PDA with a screen the size of a postage stamp.

    And let's add accepted by cellular providers. Face it, the phone company has read the Microsoft Business Manual very carefully. They are going to wring every penny out of us they can and NO feature will be permitted if it doesn't add to their income stream. That means we're unlikely to see a consumer friendly smartphone mp3 player provided by the phone companies. So how many of us will be willing to pony up the $500+ to buy one without the phone subsidy?

    Convergence makes sense when it makes sense - but convergence for its own sake will fail. The only reason to marry phones and audio/video players is to reduce the number of devices we carry and/or the cost. But convergence requires trade-offs and what will we trade off when the device is a phone, personal organizer, handheld game machine, music and video player?

    I'm thinking Gates never owned a Swiss Army Knife. What a great idea! Knife, scissors, corkscrew, screwdriver, magnifying glass, fork and spoon all in one small package. I bugged my parents for one until they finally bought it for my 13th birthday. I carried it for less than a week. It is still in my sock drawer, a constant reminder that some things sound lots better than they wind up being.

    Nah, I think Gates is dead wrong except for the few who are willing to buy mediocre over priced gadgets.

    David | May 2005

  • 6.I'm not sure why this blog was generated and I'm not sure why people like Bill Gates are rambling about combining technologies into one device when the technology is already here. I'm also not sure why several cell phone manufacturers are mentioned in the blog but Sony Ericsson isn't. Sony Ericsson's P9XX series already does the job.

    Admittedly, the things don't carry gigs and gigs of music (the flashcards hold significantly smaller data), but they do the job for someone that's near a computer every day.

    Johaan | May 2005 | London, Ontario

  • 7.Battery life, storage, sound quality, yeah, yeah, yeah. Why does everybody get all worked up about technologies that don't exist today when the whole freakin' point is about what could be developed tomorrow? No, I can't have my cell phone turned on on a plane...today. That's ALREADY under FAA review, and I doubt it'll be long before you can have the PDA part of the phone on as long as the wireless part is off. (Hell, I can already turn the phone on when the plane has landed and is on an active taxiway...and I couldn't do that 12 months ago.) C'mon people...take the long view!

    Shel Holtz | May 2005 | Concord, CA

  • 8.First, there is already an itunes phone from Motorola that's virtually out - if any carrier would step up and put away their dreams of making $4 on each music track they sell. The problem is not having a bundle of features - the main stumbling block is that every cell phone/PDA has no idea how to design an interface that humans want to use on a regular basis OR they slap features in because marketing/sales told them they needed 2 more than the other guy's phone. Like the recent NYT review of the Samsung phone with 568 menu choices - 568! Come on! And name one person who actually says they like he quality of their camera phone? While a cell phone does offer a few more functions than the ipod, their software writers for their OS cannot seem to figure which menus and features are more important than others ... or they can't even agree what the word SYNC or BLUETOOTH really means. Until they get that act together, they cannot hope to take on more than what they cannot chew or swallow now ...

    You seem to imply you want some sort of automated podcast retrieval - if you use a Mac, there are a couple dashboard widgets that will do that for you already or you can run AUTOMATOR and there might be a script for itunes you can download but that feature is readily available on the Mac side.

    jbelkin | May 2005

  • 9.Gates is just sore because Apple had the ipod out years ago before they even thought about it! Whatever Apple does windows follows if you look at the introduction of USB & firewire these where all standard on Apple computers years and years ago. Some ppl are getting fed up of the windows saying "the next version of windows everything will work" Honest!!!
    As for ipods i guess like others I actualy dont want my music & phone intergrated as my phone gets a lot of hammer and I like to change it quite often, unlike my music player which I might use traveling and on holidays!

    kyla | May 2005

  • 10."automatic retrieval without having to launch the Quick News app and ask it to get the latest feeds"

    Not quite sure if this is what you mean, but Quick News can automatically launch and grab feeds at a predetermined time.

    >QN >Options >Preferences >Auto Updates

    Apologies if I misunderstood.

    J. | May 2005

Comment Form

« Back